Four nations vie for the title
The FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its semi-final stage, with France, Argentina, Spain, and England remaining in contention for the trophy. This marks the first time since 1990 that all four semi-finalists are former world champions. It is also the first occasion since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992 that the top four-ranked teams have all advanced to the final four.
The tournament, expanded to include 48 teams and 104 matches, has seen its contenders align with the FIFA rankings as it enters its final week. These four highest-ranked teams are now two victories away from lifting the coveted trophy.
Semi-final matchups and predictions
The semi-final schedule features two significant contests. Spain is set to face France in Arlington, Texas, on July 15. The defending champions, Argentina, will then play England in Atlanta on July 16. The teams that do not advance will compete in the third-place playoff in Miami on July 19, with the final scheduled for July 20 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Betting markets offer insights into public sentiment regarding the likely winners. Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen substantial interest, with a combined betting volume exceeding $5.3 billion across various World Cup markets. For the Spain versus France semi-final, France is favoured with a 59% probability of reaching the final, compared to Spain’s 41%. Over $9 million has reportedly been wagered on this outcome.
The second semi-final between Argentina and England is considered closer. England holds a slight advantage with a 54% chance of progressing, while Argentina has a 46% chance. Approximately $2.8 million has been wagered on this match alone. Polymarket also indicates a similar trend, favouring a France versus England final.
Outright winner and individual awards
When considering the outright winner of the tournament, betting markets largely favour France. Roughly 39% of bets across the two prediction platforms have backed Didier Deschamps’ team to win the World Cup, positioning them as clear favourites. England is the second favourite, attracting around 22% of predictions, closely followed by Spain with approximately 21%. Argentina, despite being the defending champions and featuring Lionel Messi, is the least favoured of the remaining teams, with about 18% of predictions supporting them to retain their title.
The race for the Golden Boot is also closely watched. Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are currently tied at the top of the scoring charts with eight goals each, while Harry Kane remains in contention with six goals. Betting markets heavily favour Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s leading scorer, with 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi. Messi follows with 34% and 31% respectively, while Kane receives 5% on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.
The Golden Ball award, for the tournament’s best player, has also garnered significant attention. Mbappe leads the betting for this award as well, with 56% on Playmarket and 61% on Kalshi. Messi is his closest challenger, with 34% and 31%. Jude Bellingham is also considered a contender, with 18% on both platforms.
For the Best Young Player award, Spain’s Lamine Yamal is the overwhelming favourite, with 42% support on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi. He is ahead of France’s Desire Doue and Spain’s Pau Cubarsi. In the Golden Glove race, France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads with approximately 37-38% support across both platforms, slightly ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon. Even the Fair Play Award has generated interest, with Norway, despite their elimination, remaining strong favourites with around 90% of predictions.
Team perspectives on the semi-finals
From Spain, journalist Guillem Balague notes that all four semi-finalists possess the qualities needed to win. He suggests that if Spain can control possession against France and prevent counter-attacks, they have a strong chance, especially with a strong performance from Lamine Yamal. Spanish fan Michel believes Spain will win the tournament, expecting them to control and defeat France, with the winner of that match going on to claim the title.
Journalist Phil McNulty from England suggests that France is likely to win the trophy, citing their attacking prowess with players like Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue. He anticipates an England versus France final, with Didier Deschamps potentially concluding his tenure with a World Cup victory. English fan Paul is optimistic about England’s chances, citing Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane as key players, and views a final against France or Spain as a 50/50 prospect.
French journalist Abdoul-Karim from TV5 Monde highlights a strong sense of confidence within the France team, noting a lack of controversy compared to previous major tournaments. He mentions that Bastille Day celebrations in some cities have been postponed to allow for celebrations after the semi-final. French fan Rachel believes this is the best France team she has seen and expects them to win the World Cup, anticipating England in the final.
Argentine journalist Santi Sciola considers France the top team to win the title, praising their offensive strength and improved defensive play as the tournament has progressed. While he hopes Argentina wins, he sees France as a step above the rest in terms of football. Argentine fan Emma expresses confidence, acknowledging that the match against England will be difficult but believes Argentina can win, possibly on penalties, though she expects a loss to France in the final.
The semi-final matches are scheduled for July 15 and July 16.
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Source: bbc.com
Priya Nair
Sports Reporter
